Desk
The arithmetic
Four tools. The size and the expectancy assume your stop fills, which is the optimistic case. Gaps, fees, and partial fills can make the real loss larger. The checklist does not give permission. It only shows whether the blanks are filled. Numbers stay in this browser.
Position size
Cash at risk, then size
Units = cash you will risk ÷ distance from entry to stop. The result is rounded down. This is not an options calculator.
- Cash at risk
- 50.00
- Distance to stop
- 2.00
- Units, rounded down
- 25
- Notional at entry
- 1,250.00
- Planned reward-to-risk
- 2.00 R
- Planned gain if target fills
- 100.00
Example prices are not a trade. Use your account currency. The labels are unitless on purpose. A size is not a reason to click. Run the checklist next.
Before the click
A checklist, not a signal
These are the blanks the manual already requires. Yes does not mean the trade will work. No means stand aside.
I can point to the price where this idea is wrong.
The size comes from that distance, not from how sure I feel.
A gap or a halt through the stop is still a loss I can take, or I will be flat before the event.
Open heat, including this idea, is inside the cap I wrote down.
I am not trying to win the last loss back.
A stranger could mark this setup from one sentence.
Unanswered is not a yes.
Expectancy
Win rate is not the score
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Enter averages as positive R. A loss of 1R is written as 1.
- Win rate
- 40.0%
- Expectancy
- 0.20 R
- Profit factor
- 1.33
If this expectancy held for the next 100 trades, the sum would be about 20.0 R before costs. It will not hold. Costs can take a small positive number below zero.
Journal
Results in R
Log the actual multiple, including losers and rule breaks. A win taken off the plan is not evidence the plan works.
No trades logged. A journal starts with one honest result, including the losses.